Overcapacity warning PV industry target conservative

In the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for New Materials Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "New Materials Planning"), the materials used in the new energy field will be one of the key areas that the government will encourage in the future.

In terms of wind power and photovoltaic industry, the government's plan for the former is considered to be achievable, and the planning for photovoltaics is somewhat conservative. Experts from both industries and the business community believe that if the Chinese government has more specific incentive policies in the future, it will fundamentally promote the transformative development of several major industries.

The newly installed 60 million kilowatts of wind power is mentioned in the new material plan. “In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s wind power has installed more than 60 million kilowatts of wind power, requiring 500,000 tons of high-performance glass fiber and 900,000 tons of high-performance resin materials. ”

"High-performance fiberglass and resin materials are used on the fan blades." A high-level wind energy of Xiangdian said on the phone yesterday that the total cost of these two kinds of products accounted for about 25% to 30% of the cost of fan manufacturing. If the new wind power installation is set to reach more than 60 million kilowatts in five years, it will be higher than the 50 million kilowatts target that was originally speculated in the market.

Tian Donghong, an analyst at CSC, said that at present, the total capacity of glass fiber in China has more than 2 million tons, but the total amount of high-performance glass fiber is still relatively small.

Jiuding New Material [8.56 3.38% Shares Bar Report] Xu Xuan, director of the Board of Directors, told the "First Financial Daily" reporter that at present China is already the world's largest producer of fiberglass, but about 70% of the products are still used in transportation and In construction, the rest are used in consumer goods, industrial and agricultural equipment, and electrical and electronic equipment. The amount of glass fiber used in wind energy is not large, and it is estimated that it is less than 100,000 tons. "Now our high-performance resin fiber products have passed the appraisal of related departments and are preparing for mass production. It is expected that the total quantity of 100,000 tons can be reached during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period."

A wind power investor told reporters that it is indeed a trend to develop high-performance resins and high-performance fiberglass, both of which are used on wind blades. “Our country's resin and glass fiber technology also has a certain gap with foreign countries. In addition to reducing the weight of blades after technological improvement, we must also have better technology and design. For example, we can now use the blades of offshore wind turbines, we can The use of domestically-made blades, but the material of the blades such as glass fiber and resin, our requirement for suppliers is that we must purchase overseas imported products."

Xiangdian Wind Energy also pointed out that the current situation of rare earth price fluctuations, the use of rare earth manufactured direct drive fan products have been a great challenge, and if other wind power materials can reduce prices, will reduce the risk of enterprises. “The price of direct-drive fans is now around RMB 3,900/kW to RMB 4,000/kW, but it is still slightly higher than the RMB 3,700/kW that is not quoted for doubly-fed duplex machines. Customers are now more willing to choose double-fed machines. If the government can provide more support measures for fan material technology, then the overall decline in wind turbine prices will be of great help."

Photovoltaic industry is somewhat conservative. Yesterday afternoon, Mr. Yang, a senior polysilicon company, also downloaded the contents of the new material plan to his own computer. “In the new material plan, China will build 10 million kilowatts of solar power plants within five years. Above, we need 80,000 tons of polysilicon and 60 million square meters of low-iron suede-rolled glass.” The high-level manager pointed out that this plan is obviously more conservative than it actually is.

The management of a company that is engaged in the manufacture of photovoltaic modules pointed out to reporters that there are now about 4 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants in China. If we look at the progress of domestic projects, it is estimated that by 2013 it will exceed the construction volume of 10 million kilowatts.

“As another example of polysilicon, China’s largest GCL-Poly currently has 60,000 tons of output this year. In 2011, China’s consumption of polysilicon for photovoltaics was approximately 130,000 tons, and domestic and foreign companies each provided 70,000 tons and 6 About 10,000 tons.” Mr. Yang pointed out that if the planning is too large, it will attract too much investment and lead to excess capacity. “Now we are concerned that the technical capabilities of China’s polysilicon companies cannot meet the standard. Because of its advanced technology, foreign advanced polysilicon production lines can control production costs at 20 to 25 US$/kg, and only a few domestic companies can achieve this figure. ”

Mr. Yang said that although the purchasing cost of imported polysilicon in China was at 58 US$/kg in 2011, and even though polysilicon was reduced to 40 US$/kg in 2012, there is still room for gross profit for domestic individual polysilicon companies, but it is assumed that overseas countries’ PV subsidies Once lower and lower, then downstream manufacturers such as components will certainly continue to push prices down to polysilicon companies. "The result will be that most of China's polysilicon companies will be declared bankrupt, and domestic component companies can only resort to low-cost polysilicon products from overseas companies. This will pose great challenges to the development of the polysilicon industry."

In the third and fourth quarters of last year, among the 43 polysilicon companies in China, about 30 of them successively announced that they were suspending production intermittently, because the sales volume of polysilicon of downstream photovoltaic companies was already lower than their affordability.

Of course, in a sense, fierce market competition will inevitably allow domestic polysilicon companies to find ways to reduce costs, but it will also reduce the number of blind investors, but if the government can give polysilicon companies more preferential measures and financial support It will also allow some polysilicon companies to overcome difficulties in the short term and invest more funds for transformation or R&D.