"If after two or three days, all traditional cars become electric cars, will Bosch (China) become the second Kodak?" According to Xu Daquan, Executive Vice President of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd. With the industry beginning to move towards the era of electric vehicles, the electrification of the power system will have a profound impact on the future of the automotive industry, and how parts suppliers respond to the future of electrification is very important.
Xu Daquan believes that the current global automotive industry has shown seven major trends such as the shift to Asia, diversification of power systems, market segmentation, increased demand for safety systems, integration of the automotive industry, automotive electrification, and networked automotive infotainment systems, which has led to electric The key factors in the automotive market are battery technology breakthroughs, component standardization, and economies of scale.
Xu Daquan analysis pointed out that because of the current car development trends in North America, the EU, Japan, and South Korea in the next 10 years, the market's growth rate is basically very low, while the average annual growth rate in Asia is predicted to exceed 10%. Therefore, if you want to develop new energy vehicles, electric vehicles may be the direction in the future. In addition, multiple power modes including homogeneous hybrid gas combustion technology, diesel, alternative fuels, hybrid power and gasoline will exist at the same time, which means that At least by 2020, the annual growth of the global automotive market will still reach 78 million vehicles, and 95% of these new cars will still be equipped with conventional internal combustion engines. Therefore, how to optimize the efficiency of traditional internal combustion engines is a problem that deserves attention.
"If a family car with a standard fuel consumption of 7.7 liters per 100 kilometers is reduced to 5.5 liters after adopting various technologies such as turbocharging, direct injection, and thermal management, plus hybrid power can also reduce 10%. But one Standard household diesel gasoline vehicles, through advanced technology and hybrid power, fuel consumption can be reduced to 4.7 liters, which is very good. "Xu Daquan said by example, at present, diesel engines and other technologies are already available in Europe, the United States, and even China. Mature technology and products, so it is possible to reduce the fuel consumption of 7.7 liters to 4.7 liters. In addition, if further improvements are made in automobile resistance air, etc., the fuel consumption can be reduced to 3.8 liters in one step.
"On this basis, we have added many existing technologies, and after all aspects of design optimization, we can even reach 3.2 liters." Xu Daquan believes that while developing electric vehicles, there are actually many mature technologies available. Reduce fuel consumption to the standard of 3 liters or even 4 liters. At present, the challenge of the development of electric vehicles is mainly the breakthrough of battery technology and the reduction of component costs, thereby narrowing the high price difference between electric vehicles and traditional car products.
The Chinese government has the largest subsidy for electric vehicles in the world, but in Xu Daquan ’s view, the subsidy funds can stimulate the development of the electric vehicle market, but it cannot establish a market. The final establishment of the market depends on the price of the entire vehicle and the cost of key components . If you want to quickly reduce prices and costs, industry alliances and standardization are very important.
"Only by standardization can we unify design and manufacture, can we produce scale effect. What we are seeing now is that every car company is doing its own research and development, emphasizing that it must have its own key component technology. From the perspective of component production Say, this is an effect that hinders scale. "Xu Daquan believes that the electrification of the power system will have a profound impact on the future of the automotive industry, which is beyond doubt.
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