China's PV Industry: Transformation and Upgrading Welcome to the Spring

In this period of February 2012, just as the current situation of China's photovoltaic industry, the chill has not completely dispersed, but spring is coming soon after all.

In 2011, China's photovoltaic industry, which has developed rapidly for nearly 10 years, encountered a “winter season”, and Europe, which accounts for nearly 70% of China’s PV export market, faced a debt crisis and drastically reduced its PV installation subsidies. In the second largest market, Japan, due to earthquakes, demand Slow down. At the same time, countries such as the United States and India successively launched “double counter” investigations into China’s photovoltaics, and international trade protectionism has extended to new energy fields, which has further exacerbated China’s PV companies.

Under the "winter", the Chinese government began to increase its support for the photovoltaic industry. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2011 made a resolution to “actively nurture and develop strategic emerging industries.” Two ministerial “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” directly related to the photovoltaic industry were brewing. Moreover, due to the development of photovoltaic technology, it is expected to achieve parity online in the near future. Photovoltaic power generation will no longer depend on state subsidies, but will participate in full competition in the power market. The new round of development of China's photovoltaic industry has opened its doors.

In this chilly season, China's photovoltaic industry faces a “shuffle” photovoltaic company with financial and technological advantages will continue to promote technology research and development and scale production along the route of reducing costs; many small and medium-sized enterprises represent The backward production capacity will be eliminated, eventually leading to the transformation and upgrading of China's photovoltaic industry and healthy development.

Speeding up the development of the domestic market On December 9, 2011, the National Energy Administration once again disclosed to the outside that the goal of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for the development of renewable energy in China has been increased by 50% from the original “up to 10 GW of solar power generation by 2015”. , To 15GW; In fact, compared to the earliest "5GW" target, photovoltaic "Twelve-Five" target has been raised twice.

The "Golden Sun Demonstration Project" and "Solar Optoelectronic Building Demonstration Project" policies promoted by various departments such as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology prioritized different subsidies. The National Energy Administration's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" pays more attention to the overall balanced development of the industry. From 2011 to 2015, the National Energy Administration will promote the construction of “solar city” and “solar photovoltaic power station”, further increase the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells, enhance international competitiveness, and maintain a share of 40%–50% of the international market, forming 10 The company has a large solar cell production capacity of over 1GW per year.

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar PV Industry” formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposes to promote key technological innovations and upgrade production processes, enhance international competitiveness, promote backbone enterprises to become stronger, and promote BIPV. The development of technology supports the establishment of a BIPV system.

A person in charge of a thin-film solar company in China commented that 15GW is only a conservative estimate of the overall industry development of the country, and the final result will exceed this figure. In fact, the development of BIPV is more strategic. At present, China has 48 billion square meters of building area. If 10% of them establish a BIPV system, 500GW of thin-film solar exclusive market will be formed, which will greatly promote the development of thin film solar energy industry. Ultimately overcome the disadvantages of crystalline silicon technology such as high energy consumption and heavy pollution.

The famous Swiss Sarasin Bank's survey report on the solar photovoltaic industry pointed out that the European solar market will shrink by 5% annually between 2011 and 2015, but due to the development of emerging PV markets such as China, the global PV market demand will increase by 20% in 2012; Between 2015 and 2015, the annual growth rate of the global photovoltaic market will reach 18%.

Photovoltaic price level can be expected to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation at an unimaginable rate. In 2006, photovoltaic power generation cost more than 4 yuan per kilowatt-hour. At that time, it was widely assumed that it would take three to forty years to reach one yuan. However, it took only 3 years and by 2009, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped to 1 yuan.

A voice in the industry believes that China may take the lead in realizing solar energy at the level of the Internet. Charles Gay, president of Applied Solar, said that due to China's advantages in smart grids and other ancillary facilities, China will achieve grid parity around 2018, while the United States will wait until 2020.

The photovoltaic "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also proposes that by 2015, the cost of the photovoltaic system will drop to 15,000 yuan / kW, the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan / kWh, and the power distribution side will reach "flat-rate access"; In the past year, the system cost has dropped to 10,000 yuan/kilowatt, and the cost of power generation has reached 0.6 yuan/kWh. On the power generation side, it has achieved "flat-rate Internet access" and achieved effective competition in major power markets.

However, changes in China's photovoltaic industry may promote this goal ahead of schedule. The sudden "winter" of PV has prompted the transformation of China's PV industry from the original "scale first" to "cost priority", and Suntech's focus has been on focusing on certain aspects of PV production, highlighting specific advantages and rapid expansion. It is located in the whole industry chain model with its own technology and scale production represented by Hanergy Holdings.

Once the grid-connected photovoltaic generation price is realized, the Chinese photovoltaic industry will completely complete the transition from government-subsidized industries to market-driven industries, and usher in a huge opportunity for development. The domestic securities company Guojin Securities (600109, stocks) analyzed that from 2011 to 2015, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will gradually approach the local Internet parity, and in the next few years there will be a huge increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaics, and the photovoltaic industry will usher in a second Develop the big cycle. According to the goal of replacing 50% of global power generation with photovoltaic power generation in 2020, the newly-added PV installation capacity in the future will also be more than ten times the current level.

The expansion of the industry and the promotion of industrial integration of photovoltaic “winter” are gradually becoming farther away, but the industrial integration that has caused it is on the rise. The polysilicon industry has been hit hard, and high-cost, small-scale polysilicon companies are likely to face obsolescence. On the other hand, thin-film solar companies with the advantages of technology, scale, and adoption of next-generation solar cell technology are continuing to expand.

Meng Xianwei, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that this industry consolidation will be an opportunity for the photovoltaic industry to adjust and upgrade. China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. At present, it has the world's largest production capacity and the industrial chain is relatively perfect. However, compared with developed countries, there are still gaps in technology. Blind construction, low-level repetition, and homogenous competition are still serious. At the same time, he also stated that a lower industry climate index can force domestic photovoltaic manufacturers to speed up product structure adjustments, improve product quality, and develop into high-end areas.

It is worth mentioning that China's financial industry supports photovoltaic leading enterprises through various means such as credit tilt, and has accelerated the consolidation and upgrading of the entire photovoltaic industry. As one of the "national teams" of China's financial institutions, the China Development Bank has provided trillion-financial financing credits for Suntech Power, Trina Solar, Yingli Solar, JA Solar and LDK in 2010. In November 2011, the China Development Bank provided a strategic credit of RMB 30 billion to Hanergy Holding Group. In 2011, credit support for photovoltaic companies also included a number of financial institutions such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICC), China CITIC Bank (China Bank), Jiangnan Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and China Export Credit Insurance Corporation.

It can be expected that with the preferential policies, financial and other factors tilted to the photovoltaic industry, especially the photovoltaic leading enterprises, the integration and transformation and upgrading of China's photovoltaic industry will accelerate, and then get rid of the original extensive business model, take the high-tech, large-scale, and entire industry The new development path of the chain.