In response to the news that subsidies for new energy vehicles have subsided, starting from 2018, the cruising range of less than 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies, and local financial subsidies will be cancelled. It is reported that the retreat is not unexpected. As early as the end of 2016, the new energy vehicle subsidy rules have indicated that the subsidy publicity content has been maintained for two years.
Near the end of the year, many new energy vehicle manufacturers are waiting for policy boots to land.
Recently, the reporter learned from a number of new energy vehicles and power battery manufacturers that the news that the new energy vehicle subsidies have been slowed down and the speed will be settled. The documents have been drafted and the news will be announced soon. In the future, high energy density batteries and long cruising range will become the key encouragement standards, and local financial subsidies will be cancelled.
A source who did not want to be named told reporters that he learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that starting from 2018, new energy vehicles with a cruising range of less than 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies; in addition, local subsidies for new energy vehicles will be suspended. .
In the 2017 National Subsidy Standard, a subsidy of 20,000 yuan will be given for new energy vehicles with a cruising range of 100 to 150 kilometers. In addition, local governments can grant local financial subsidies of no more than 50% on the national financial subsidy standards.
In response to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, there have been multiple versions of rumors. The reporter learned from a number of sources that it tends to subsidize models with high energy density and long cruising range, and the policy tendency to reduce subsidies with low energy density and short cruising range is gradually being settled.
Another power battery manufacturer told reporters that in the new version of the financial subsidy program, the new energy bus's power subsidy will be reduced from 1,800 yuan / kWh to 1,100 yuan / kWh, the non-fast charge cyclist country's national cap is adjusted to no more than 18 Ten thousand yuan, the state supplement + land compensation line is reduced to no more than 270,000 yuan, the latter two subsidies reduced by 40%.
However, these claims have not yet received public response from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
The retreat came ahead of schedule, and the car company said that “the production rhythm was disruptedâ€
The decline in financial subsidies for new energy vehicles is not sudden.
In the new energy vehicle subsidy rules announced at the end of 2016, it is clearly stated that the subsidy publicity content will be maintained for two years, and in 2019, it will fall 20% on the basis of 2017.
"The policy has three years of itch, and it can be implemented in three years." In November this year, Liu Bin, chief expert of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, publicly explained the adjustment logic of subsidy policy: the government's new energy auto industry support policy has been from " Pratt & Whitney turned to "preferring merit", from a simple reward mechanism to a combination of reward and punishment.
The China Automotive Technology and Research Center is affiliated to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business includes providing standardization and technical regulations for the government, and is involved in policy drafting and preliminary research.
What many car companies did not expect was that the retreat came so fast.
Some auto executives told reporters that they have been adjusted from the original two-year plan to one year (the new energy vehicle subsidy rules in 2017 were born at the end of 2016 and have remained less than one year). "This has a very big impact on business costs. New cars that have just been listed will not be subsidized after the year, which may lead to immediate withdrawal."
“Subsidy retreat will affect sales of more than 70% of the models, such a large amount is precisely China's most mainstream (new energy vehicles), suddenly retreat to zero, the company's production rhythm is all disrupted. Many production It is a very catastrophic change to plan to completely reinvent the situation. (About the country's new energy vehicle subsidy policy) There is a break every three years, there is no continuity of policy, which makes the company very difficult." In December this year, Yin Chengliang, director of the Intelligent Network Linked Electric Vehicle Innovation Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, expressed this view in an open forum.
Under the dynamic adjustment of policies and the changing environment, Liu Bin believes that in terms of strategy, car companies need to think clearly, choose to follow the policy or choose according to their own development. Enterprises follow the policy design model, on the one hand can enjoy the policy dividend, on the other hand, there will be restrictions on technological innovation, research and development, and industry types.
Small electric vehicles and buses are affected by the deepest, or will short-term fluctuations in the sales marketFrom the perspective of subsidy adjustment, the previous energy density was low, and the small new energy passenger cars and new energy buses in the commuting and shared travel areas in the city were the most affected.
According to the data of the National Passenger Car Joint Conference, the demand for micro-electric vehicle consumption in 2017 is strong. From January to November this year, the sales volume of A00-class electric passenger vehicles reached 244,400, a year-on-year increase of 162%, accounting for new energy. Passenger car sales were 53.35%.
Sun Xiaodong, general manager of Ningbo Liwei Energy Energy Storage System Co., Ltd. believes that with the decline of the subsidy quota and the complete cancellation until 2020, the market structure of electric vehicles may undergo major adjustments: with the decline in subsidy quota, the sales of household A-class cars will be cliff-shaped. Falling.
The electric bus is facing the situation of naked swimming after the subsidy tide has retreated.
Judging from the cumulative sales data from January to October this year, Yutong Bus ranked first, with a cumulative sales volume of 11,000; BYD passenger car ranked second with 8,445 vehicles. However, from the data of the certificate output of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are no car companies with monthly output exceeding 10,000 in the first ten months of this year.
At the 8th Global New Energy Vehicle Conference held on December 15th, Cui Zhiqiang, CEO of the first electric network, commented that the industry is deep or even sluggish.
Cui Zhiqiang analyzed that despite the policy push, the comprehensive cost of electric buses is still high in terms of procurement and operation. This is probably the internal cause of the fast and large-scale electrification of the bus industry. At present, new energy buses with various technical configurations are still in the state of being “inspected†in China. As far as urban public transportation is concerned, no other type of products can be locked into the best technical and economic benefits, which can be promoted on a large scale. application.
Recently, the reporter visited several new energy vehicle sales outlets in Beijing. Many sales personnel have already subsidized the subsidies, as a marketing reason, encouraging consumers to pick up the car as soon as possible, and said that once the new energy vehicle subsidies are adjusted, it is likely This will result in no cars to sell at the beginning of next year.
At the beginning of 2017, as the subsidies for new energy vehicles fell, companies needed to adjust their business policies, resulting in a decline in sales of new energy vehicles. Many dealers stopped picking up cars.
After the subsidy retreats, who will bear the cost?With the subsidies falling, the competition among new energy automakers has become increasingly fierce.
Li Yixiu, general manager of Beiqi New Energy Automobile Marketing Co., said, “If you compare a new energy vehicle to a child, then the country is not pampered with him, but chooses to quickly temper and upgrade and accelerate his training.†Currently “policy driven + ecological drive†Mainly, supplemented by market drivers, will usher in the transition of the window period at the end of 2019 - to shift to a new stage of product-driven and market-driven, and more emphasis on product personalization and branding.
At the same time, a large number of new energy vehicle products and new price concessions are accelerating, and car manufacturers may see a bayonet.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, new energy vehicles, including new and upgraded models, have listed 45 new models, and the layout of various manufacturers is extremely fast. On the other hand, the promotion of new energy vehicles is increasing, some models The discount amount has exceeded 20,000 yuan.
After the subsidy has retreated, who will bear the cost will become a new challenge.
In this regard, Chery New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Marketing Minister Lu Huaping pointed out that once the subsidy subsides, the cost of bicycles will increase by 17,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan. "If the manufacturers share, this is a dead end; the cost will be borne by the three parties, and the consumers will come. It is said that prices may increase next year; dealers’ business policies may be reduced; companies will reduce costs and increase efficiency internally."
Looking back on the decline of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2017, it is not only the manufacturers of complete vehicles.
A senior executive of a power battery company told reporters that after the retreat of the national subsidy this year, it directly affected the efficiency of the return of the automakers. In addition, the demand for new energy vehicles was strong, and the price of rare metals in the upstream skyrocketed, which gave the power battery industry a It is a great pressure.
Zhong Mengguang, vice president of Wattmar battery, told reporters that the current power battery factory is facing huge cost pressure: before 2015, 50% of the cost of a pure electric vehicle originated from the battery, and the battery was too expensive, which affected the market promotion. Through technology upgrades and large-scale production, battery costs have dropped to 35% to 40%, which has prompted power battery manufacturers to continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In the future, improved technology, large-scale production, improved automation, and the use of ladders will become the key to competition among power battery companies.
Sun Xiaodong believes that the battery manufacturing cost of electric vehicles needs to be further reduced in the future to achieve the balance between battery depreciation and fuel-electricity difference. At present, the manufacturing cost of power battery has dropped to 1.7 yuan/Wh or even 1.4 yuan/Wh, and the material end has been pressed. It is very low and it is difficult to further reduce direct costs. Therefore, cascade utilization will become an important use scenario, and the energy storage market and automotive power-changing technology will usher in new development opportunities.
Post-subsidy era: subsidy policy package is on the wayAt the same time as the financial subsidies have subsided, the relevant ministries and commissions are using a package to standardize and promote the further development of new energy vehicles.
Liu Bin pointed out that in the past few years, the government's policy tools used in the new energy industry have gradually increased, including fiscal and tax support, and policy instruments such as exemption from purchases and exemptions; the ministries promoted at the national level have increased from 2-3. Up to 18.
Earlier, Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, also revealed that the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and other departments, is establishing a set of fiscal and taxation policy systems for subsidies for new energy vehicles. The subsidies range from individual policies to policy combinations. The policy system has been continuously improved.
According to the reporter's understanding, in response to the "post-subsidy era", a number of institutions have jointly studied countermeasures, including tax support policies, follow-up subsidy policy research in 2020, traffic differentiation policy, charging infrastructure support policy and double-point policy, business model. Research and other aspects.
In September this year, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the China Automotive Engineering Society, and the China Electric Vehicle 100-member Association jointly launched the “Research on the Post-Subsidy Era New Energy Vehicle Support Policy System†project to discuss how to realize the subsidy exit of the new energy automobile industry. After a smooth transition, continuous development.
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