China's charging infrastructure construction lags far behind the development of new energy automobile industry. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the number of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 500,000. By the end of 2015, only 3,600 charging and replacing stations and 49,000 public charging piles have been built nationwide, far from meeting more than 500,000 new energy vehicles. The charging demand is far from the planning goal of 12,000 centralized charging and replacement stations and 4.8 million decentralized charging piles in 2020. According to this calculation, if the planning target is reached after 5 years, the annual growth rate of the number of charging piles needs to reach 150%.
According to the data in 2014, the number of new energy vehicles is nearly 100,000, but there are only more than 30,000 charging piles. In 2015, the production capacity of new energy vehicles in China is close to 330,000, but in 2015, only the charging piles A total of 29,600 were built. In terms of proportion, about eight cars were equipped with a charging pile.
In 2015, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles exceeded 500,000 units. It is estimated that by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million units, and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million units. Car.
Reconstruction of charging infrastructure by 2020
Charging facilities and car configuration are generally 1:3 for buses and 1:5 for passenger cars. We assume that all charging poles are configured according to passenger car standard 1:5. In 2020, the market for charging piles is expected to reach 100 billion yuan. According to the more mature foreign markets, the ratio of charging facilities to vehicles should reach 1:1. Or it is 1:1.2, and even if we allocate the charging pile according to the ratio of 1:3, then the market size of China's charging piles in 2020 is far more than 100 billion yuan, and it may reach 300 billion yuan. In the future, this market will undoubtedly have broad development. prospect.
Size of the charging market in 2020 (expected)
According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year" New Energy Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Reward Policy and the Notice on Strengthening the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, etc., all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities must obtain the basis for new energy vehicle charging. Facilities construction and operation incentive subsidy funds need to reach a certain scale of promotion.
Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei and other key areas of air pollution control and key provinces and cities, the number of new energy vehicles (standard vehicles) in 2016 should be no less than 30,000 vehicles, and the number of promotion accounts for new and updated in the region. The total proportion of cars is not less than 2%. Since then, it has increased year by year. By 2020, the number of promotion should be no less than 70,000 units, accounting for no less than 6%. In the Central Province and Fujian Province, the number of new energy vehicles to be promoted in 2016 should not be less than 18,000 vehicles, accounting for no less than 1.5%; the number of promotion in other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) should not be less than 10,000 vehicles in 2016, accounting for less than 10,000 vehicles. The ratio should not be less than 1%. On this basis, the greater the amount of promotion, the more incentive subsidies.
The national financial incentives were up to 25 billion during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Local subsidies landed before April 2016. The construction of charging piles began to accelerate significantly in the second quarter of this year.
On April 1, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Guidance for Energy Work in 2016", which mentioned that in 2016, it plans to build more than 2,000 charging stations, 100,000 decentralized public charging piles, and 860,000 private dedicated charging piles. The total investment of various types of charging facilities is 30 billion yuan.
Hebei, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other provinces and cities have clearly defined the construction of charging facilities, and issued subsidy standards for the construction and operation of charging facilities. On April 1, the General Office of the Hebei Provincial Government issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in the Provinceâ€, and by the end of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€, 1,970 charging stations were built in Hebei Province, and 65,000 charging piles were built. According to the "Shanghai Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Special Plan", by 2020, the city's charging piles will exceed 210,000, which is about 10 times that of 2015, and basically meets the charging service demand of 260,000 new energy vehicles. In 2016, Beijing will build 5,000 public charging piles on the basis of the existing 5008 public charging piles. The number of public charging piles in the city will be “broken†and 25,000-26,000 piles will be built in private use. By the end of 2016, Shenzhen will build another 184,000 KW charging facility. If it is equivalent to 1000 charging piles of 8000KW, 184,000 KW is equivalent to about 23,000 charging piles.
In the face of such a blue ocean, the capital of each channel will naturally not wait for such a large cake to be divided by others, and they all want to take the lead in the battle for the charging pile market. At the end of last year, charging pile companies have released their 2016 development strategies, even the development goals for 2020, to accelerate the pace of the enclosure. The powers of all parties including charging operators, equipment manufacturers and total solution providers have actively participated in the construction of charging infrastructure, including State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, Sinopec, Putian New Energy and other central enterprises, Beiqi New Energy, Jingneng State-owned enterprises such as the Group and Huashang Sanyou, as well as private enterprises such as BYD, Fudian Technology, Te Rui De, Judian and Autotel.
Recently, as the main force in the construction of charging piles, State Grid officially launched the second tender for power supply in 2016, including hydropower control devices and charging equipment. The former has only 5 sets, and the latter has more than 6,600 sets. This is also the country. The grid has started the tender for the first round of charging piles this year. This round of bidding DC charging facilities has occupied a dominant position. Among the more than 6,000 DC charging devices, there are 412 high-speed DC charging facilities, which is further increased compared with the 2015 national grid charging equipment. The overall scale of the first round It is estimated to be around 600 million to 700 million yuan. Some insiders said that the tender amount of the charging grid of the State Grid this year is about 5 billion yuan, much higher than the same period of the previous year. In addition to the batch of tenders completed in April, there will be two batches of charging piles in May and September this year. .
The national power grid bidding volume is large, accounting for half of the total domestic demand. The investment cost of DC fast charging is more than 2.5 times that of AC slow charging. The profit level is relatively high. For charging pile enterprises, the bidding of the State Grid is undoubtedly a piece. "Big cake."
The charging pile industry is divided into two parts, equipment and operation. The equipment enterprises have taken the lead in benefiting, while the operating enterprises are still in the stage of exploration because of the profit model, and they can not fulfill the performance in the short term, but they have long-term imagination.
The strong support of the policy and market environment for the construction of charging infrastructure has given the charging pile industry more optimistic expectations. However, as the charging pile industry develops rapidly and the number of charging pile enterprises increases substantially, problems also arise. There are still many constraints in the construction of charging infrastructure: the business model is not clear, the vehicle pile standards are not uniform, the compatibility is poor, and the quality of the charging piles is uneven. In addition, the charging piles are operated by islands in terms of payment channels and information collection, and cannot be interconnected. .
Thinking 1: How to solve the new and old charging pile compatibility
The charging pile itself does not have a high technical content. It is precisely because of this that a powerful company has launched a round of games and tried to use its influence to become the dominant player. The government as a participant in the interest has not been timely. At the end of 2015, the new national standard for charging facilities was introduced.
Since January 1, 2016, the newly revised five national standards for electric vehicle charging interface and communication protocol have been implemented. The charging interface and communication protocol have been fully and systematically regulated, especially in terms of charging compatibility. The breakthrough ensures the interconnection of electric vehicles and charging facilities. Before that, many charging piles have been built, more charging pile products are already on the production line, and old piles and cars have compatibility problems, which have caused a lot of waste of resources and potential contradictions. The charging problem caused by the incompatibility of the charging pile is urgent.
Thinking 2: How to explore business models
Regardless of how the industry is moving, the market is always cruel, a sustainable business model is king, and business model innovation is a prerequisite for “sustainabilityâ€.
Charging piles Many companies are building a pile of madness. In addition to market share, how to convert charging piles into realizable portals in the Internet era is also a subject that must be considered.
In the charging pile industry chain, the operational link is crucial because it determines the overall profit model of the industry. In the medium and long term, charging facility operation is the most promising part, but how to make profitable charging facilities is the biggest difficulty.
In the Internet era, the charging pile will complete the role change from the hardware of the device to the software of the intelligent operation platform. The commercial value of the charging station (pile) will also evolve from a single charging service to a charging service fee, selling electricity, advertising with charging pile as the entrance. New profit generation points for Internet finance and big data services with insurance, 4S maintenance, car rental, etc. and demand for clothing, food and shelter terminals. But it is not known who can earn money. As with charging service charges, these methods will not see profit in the short term. All new profit generation points, such as Internet finance and big data services, must be based on the premise that electric vehicles have a considerable amount of ownership, and that charging piles have formed scale and cultivated users. At the moment, the market is almost still in the middle of the race. It is too early to talk about profit.
Thinking 3: Interconnection
At present, there is still a problem of unreasonable resource allocation and low use efficiency in the charging pile market. In addition to solving the interconnection between electric vehicles and charging facilities, it is urgent to establish a unified electric pile operation management platform through data sharing, system access, and open cooperation. The way to open up the charging management system, car manufacturers, partner charging management system to form a unified and convenient charging service network, to achieve a true sense of interconnection.
Conclusion: Charging facilities have always been a paradox in the development of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles. Although the policy guidance and the joint efforts of industry people have made great progress. However, the development and implementation of standards and the integration of technologies require further joint and interoperability between industries.
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