Just bring a pair of glasses or a set of equipment to enter the virtual reality world - the vr industry attracts the pursuit of technology and capital with its imaginative imagination and wide application scenarios. Since 2014, the concept of vr has become hot in the world. Leading companies in the Internet giants and subdivisions have entered the field to test their waters and try to occupy a place in the early stage of the industry. In China, BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) entered the game in 2016. At the same time, more than 60 listed companies declared cross-border vr industry, and thus 2016 is also known as the first year of China's vr industry.
However, the industry's development process seems to be slower than expected, and the bottleneck has come a little earlier than expected. Different from the fiery conditions in 2015 and early 2016, after entering May, the capital that flocked to vr came to a “quick brakeâ€. The well-known vr enterprise layoffs, several start-up projects “quickly frozenâ€, and the vr industry entered the winter from summer. .
What problems have the vr industry encountered? Has the investment community lost confidence in the development of the industry? How should companies behave themselves before spring comes again? This series of problems is shrouded in the minds of practitioners. From December 1st to 2nd, the "China-US Virtual Reality Conference (Beijing)" was held at the Yanqi Lake Campus of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. At the conference site, interviews with entrepreneurs, practitioners, investors and other parties, trying to outline the development of the vr industry, to see the industry opportunities in the industry.
The industry has a cycle, and when you seize the opportunity, you can fly in the wind for a while. But for the vr industry, the “window†of this round of industry cycle is a little too far off guard. After September 2016, the well-known vr enterprises in China, such as the public view, Mido Entertainment, etc. were owed arrears, and the storm mirror was also caught in the storm of layoffs. The cold wave of the vr industry came to the fore.
From December 1st to 2nd, the "China-US Virtual Reality Conference" was held in Beijing. While affirming the prospects of the vr industry, the participants also admitted that the industry is now experiencing difficulties. “The technology itself is still very complicated, including the creation of avatars, lip synchronization, etc. It is very difficult to build. It is easy to make a sample, but it is very perfect,†said Yan Xiaolin, chief technology officer of TCL Group.
Compared with the United States, Chinese companies are more betting on the consumer market. However, due to poor user experience such as vertigo and screen window effect, the industry's expectations for the development process of the consumer market have also decreased. A number of guests said that it is too early to talk about the “burst point†in the consumer market based on the current situation. And Tang Mu, general manager of Xiaomi vr, believes that “if there is a product that reaches tens of millions of sales, this thing is reliable.â€
China has an industrial chain foundation
In March 2014, Oculus, who made vr helmets, was acquired by Facebook for $2 billion, and its founder's net worth soared to nearly $600 million. This kind of story attracts the attention from the East, and behind this is a wide range of application scenarios for vr products, and the market scale of 10 billion yuan.
In China, the development of the vr industry has risen to the national strategic level. The “13th Five-Year Plan†released in March 2016 proposes to focus on supporting the innovation and industrialization of new industries including virtual reality (VR), and form a number of new growth points.
In April 2016, the Electronic Technology Standardization Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Virtual Reality Industry Development White Paper 5.0", and once again discussed the importance of developing the virtual reality industry from the perspective of research. Driven by favorable policies, the vr industry alliance has blossomed everywhere, and vr industry seminars and forums have also been held frequently.
According to Peng Jianfeng, deputy secretary general of the China Electronics Video Industry Association, China has the industrial chain foundation needed for the development of the vr industry. “The current global semiconductor display capacity is basically concentrated in mainland China. By the end of 2017, China mainland There will be 28 LCD panel lines in production, of which 11 generations of high-generation lines account for 11 and China's production capacity is expected to become the world's number one.
In addition, Peng Jianfeng said that due to the advantages of latecomer, China's new investment is mainly concentrated on new technology products, China is fully capable of supporting the demand for large-screen and vr popularization in the future. At the same time, the cost of vr one machine will also be in China. Strong manufacturing power and industrial chain integration capabilities are rapidly declining.
However, the industry's great prospects are like a delicious dish hanging in the air. The companies are drooling, but it is hard to be early adopters.
“The biggest problem is that the investment in R&D from basic research to mass production R&D is not enough, causing many technologies to eventually become products,†said Peng Jianfeng.
The application of cutting-edge technology to industrialization still takes time, and the current products are not satisfactory. According to Ai Media Consulting's “China Virtual Reality Industry Research Report for the First Half of 2016â€, 71.3% of the respondents did not intend to purchase vr-related products, and 40.4% of them thought the price was too expensive.
"Burst point" is too early
According to the development forecast for 2015, the turning point of the vr industry is coming soon. In February 2016, Zhao Xiaoguang, director of the Essence Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the Daily Economic News that “the 'inflection point' of the vr industry has arrived. In 2015, the world sold 1 million vr devices, expected in 2016. There will be 10 million units with more than 10 times the growth space."
Whether the vr equipment can reach the expected sales volume in 2016 is still unknown, but many participants said that the industry explosion has not yet arrived.
"I think it will take a few years. Now some technical problems have not been completely solved, such as dizziness and product volume. In addition, the industry chain needs time. For example, vr-specific chips and dedicated screens have not yet started large-scale investment. Peng Jianfeng said that vr industrialization is not a problem, as long as the technology breaks through, an outbreak will occur.
Compared with the United States, although Chinese companies are relatively weak in original technology, they pay more attention to 2C-side R&D, and they have the advantage of relying on the industrial chain and facing the vast market. Peng Jianfeng also affirmed this point. Will definitely appear on the 2C side."
At the beginning of 2016, Xiaomi began to make up classes in the vr field. At present, Xiaomi vr has released two millet vr glasses, one of which is a toy version, priced at 49 yuan, the other is the official version, priced at 199 yuan. Tang Mu, general manager of Xiaomi vr, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the prices of the two products are customized at the cost price.
Intention to use low-priced products to spur the consumer group's enthusiasm for vr products, but Tang Mu also said that users' understanding of vr is actually very shallow, and this also affects the promotion of vr products. "Smartphones and smartphones are product names that you can understand, but vr hasn't. This is very strange, but it also proves that vr has not really landed in the world."
Xiaomi closely follows the mobile industry vr product layout industry chain, and sits on 100 million "rice powder", but Tang Mu still does not know when it will produce industry explosions.
"If there is a product that reaches tens of millions of sales, this thing is reliable." Tang Muxiang said, "I think it is very difficult to make explosive products in 2017."
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