Steel may rebound

In the near term, the domestic news is relatively flat, while the peripheral markets are moving frequently. First, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to maintain a very low interest rate of 0-0.25% and extend the implementation time to the end of 2014. The market's expectation of renewed quantitative easing (QE3) once again warmed up. Affected by this, the US dollar index has been falling all the way, dropping to 78.77 from the high of 81.78 points before the holiday. In addition, the initial value of the PMI in the euro area rose to 48.7 in January from 46.9 in December, the highest in five months. The market has been passivated for all kinds of risk events and news of the European debt crisis. From the information passed recently, the storm of the European debt crisis has also been temporarily alleviated. On January 30, European Union leaders reached a consensus on a permanent euro zone aid fund. The “European stabilization mechanism” with a total value of 500 billion euros will come into effect in July. It will be one year earlier than the previous plan. The fund will be The EU countries with heavy debt burden provide support.

Affected by the rest factors caused by long vacations, steel stocks in major cities in the country rose sharply in the latest week, including rebar stocks of 6,695,400 tons, weekly increase of 835,600 tons or 14.35%, an increase of 25.2% year-on-year, and wire stocks of 1,777,500. Ton, the weekly increase of 302.5 million tons or 20.5%, an increase of 8%. On the production side, according to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the first half of January 2012 was a relatively low level in the past two years, only 1.6906 million tons, 9.17% lower than the 2011 average of 1,861,300 tons. By the end of January 2010, the output was 1.6721 million tons. However, compared with last December, there was still an increase of 64,100 tons or 3.94%. Sales figures also improved compared with the same period of previous years. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, daily sales of 76 key steel enterprises in the first half of January 2012 were 1,090,400 tons, which was compared with sales of 920,800 tons and 1,082,300 tons in the same period of 2010 and 2011. , is in the highest position in the last three years. Slightly rebounded production data and sales data may indicate that the downstream demand is gradually improving. With the gradual start of downstream demand, the spot volume will also return to normal levels.